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- Introduction
Somaliland, a self-declared but unrecognized state in the Horn of Africa, stands at a critical juncture. For three decades, it has defied the odds, building a stable, democratic society from the ashes of Somalia’s civil war. Yet, its economy remains fragile, largely dependent on livestock exports and remittances. However, beneath its sun-scorched earth lies a hidden treasure: a vast and diverse reserve of mineral resources, including high-value gemstones, precious metals, and strategic industrial minerals. The discovery and potential exploitation of this mineral wealth present Somaliland with a profound question: can it be a catalyst for sustained prosperity, or will it, like so many other resource-rich nations, fall prey to the “resource curse” and descend into conflict?
- The Promise of Mineral Wealth for Prosperity
The promise is undeniable. Somaliland’s geological makeup, part of the highly productive Mozambique orogenic belt, suggests deposits of gold, platinum, tin, iron ore, and a dazzling array of gemstones such as emeralds, rubies, and sapphires. If responsibly managed, these resources could be a game-changer. Revenue from mining could fund essential infrastructure projects, from roads and schools to hospitals and energy grids. It could diversify the economy, create jobs, and lift thousands out of poverty. For a state yearning for international recognition, a thriving mining sector could also be a powerful diplomatic tool, attracting foreign investment and forging strategic partnerships that bolster its case for statehood. The recent expansion of the Berbera port, a key trade gateway for landlocked Ethiopia, demonstrates Somaliland’s strategic importance and its potential to become a regional economic hub.
However, the path from resource potential to national prosperity is fraught with peril. The history of natural resource extraction in the Horn of Africa and across the continent offers a sobering cautionary tale. The “resource curse” is a well-documented phenomenon where countries rich in natural resources experience lower economic growth, weak governance, and increased conflict. In Somaliland’s case, the risk factors are real and must be addressed head-on.
First and foremost is the challenge of governance. While Somaliland has a nascent legal framework, including the 2019 Mining Act, the capacity for effective oversight, regulation, and enforcement remains a concern. Weak institutions can lead to poor royalty collection systems, a lack of transparency, and the potential for corruption. The absence of a robust regulatory environment could allow foreign companies to exploit resources with little benefit to the local population and with devastating environmental consequences.
Secondly, the mineral wealth could exacerbate existing social and political tensions. The Horn of Africa is a region where borders are often ill-defined and natural resources have been a historical source of conflict. The competition for land and resources in Somaliland, particularly in border regions, could ignite disputes between clans and communities as recently happened in Mountains of Sanaag Region and Agabar area in Marodijeex Region which claims s. The presence of valuable minerals could also attract illicit artisanal mining, which is often unregulated and associated with environmental degradation, child labor, and social instability. Without clear and inclusive benefit-sharing mechanisms that ensure local communities receive a fair share of the profits, the potential for resentment and conflict is high.
Finally, Somaliland’s unrecognized status poses a unique set of challenges. Its diplomatic isolation limits its access to large-scale foreign investment and formal bilateral agreements, pushing it toward smaller, less transparent deals. While some see resource-based diplomacy as a path to recognition, it also creates a vulnerability to exploitation by powerful foreign actors seeking to secure resources without the encumbrance of international standards or scrutiny.
- Historical and Regional Lessons
Somaliland can learn from other African nations where mineral wealth led to conflict (e.g., Sierra Leone’s blood diamonds, Niger Delta oil conflicts) or prosperity (e.g., Botswana’s diamond management). Key lessons include:
Transparent Revenue Management: Ensuring mining profits benefit the public through accountable institutions.
Community Involvement: Engaging local leaders and clans in decision-making to prevent disputes.
Conflict-Sensitive Policies: Implementing regulations that mitigate environmental and social risks.
- Conclusion
Somaliland stands at a crossroads: its mineral wealth could either propel economic growth and political stability or deepen existing fractures. The difference lies in governance.
For Somaliland to turn its hidden treasure into a source of enduring prosperity, it must act with foresight and integrity. It needs to strengthen its legal and institutional frameworks to ensure transparency and accountability. It must develop a clear and equitable strategy for distributing wealth to its citizens, ensuring that mineral revenues benefit all regions and communities, not just a privileged few. This requires investing in geological surveys, building local capacity in the mining sector, and aligning with international initiatives like the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Most importantly, Somaliland must foster a national dialogue that empowers its people and local communities to be active participants in the decision-making process, rather than passive recipients of a resource boom. Without these measures, Somaliland risks falling into the “resource curse” trap, where natural riches lead not to wealth, but to war. The choice is clear: Somaliland can either learn from the mistakes of others and build a sustainable and inclusive future, or it can risk having its hidden treasure become a source of division and instability. The stakes could not be higher.
About the Author
Abdillahi Mohamed Bile is a Security and Political analyst with a background in Security, Peace, Conflict, International Law and Diplomacy. A member of the Guul-Arag Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (GIPOSS). He focuses on Security, post-conflict governance, and political analysis of the Horn of Africa region and beyond.
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions or perspectives of Somaliland Chronicle and its staff.
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